A Double-Edged Sword: Quantum Computing in the 21st Century

By Yuki Tanaka Nov. 1, 2025

In a world increasingly marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, collectively known as VUCA, the ability to predict and respond to rapidly-changing, unpredictable events seems paramount. Against this backdrop, quantum computing is emerging as a pivotal technology which may become key to navigating the world of the future.

On the surface, quantum computing looks set to revolutionize the field of classical computing; look deeper, however, and it has the potential to revolutionize the entire world. As such, it can be viewed as something of a double-edged sword, as it has the power to enhance our predictive capabilities while simultaneously introducing new layers of unpredictability. 

The innovation at the core of quantum computing is the use of qubits. These are quantum particles which exhibit properties such as “superposition,” allowing them to exist in multiple states simultaneously, unlike the simple 0/1 switches used in binary computers. The use of qubits facilitates exponentially faster calculations and allows quantum computers to solve problems which were previously deemed insoluble.

The sheer computational power of quantum computing promises breakthroughs and innovations in cybersecurity, engineering, biomedicine, and more. As a result, quantum computing is already regarded as a geopolitically critical technology, alongside AI and semiconductors. As such, it has been forecast to impact international relations and geostrategic competition in a way comparable to the atomic bomb, shifting global power dynamics and exacerbating disparities between “haves” and “have-nots.”

The “quantum race” between global powers, most notably the United States and China, underscores this competitive landscape and is already impacting alliances and trade relations. In particular, the United States is actively attempting to restrict China’s access to US quantum technology. In 2021, eight Chinese quantum computing organizations were added to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, prohibiting US companies from supplying them due to their alleged support for China’s military. The United States also launched an Indo-US Quantum Coordination Mechanism last year, aimed at fostering collaboration between academia and industry in the two countries.

In response, China has sought to strengthen its domestic manufacturing capabilities and relationships with allies. It recently showcased “Origin Wukong,” an independently-produced quantum computer based on domestically-manufactured chips. China and Russia also co-developed and tested a quantum satellite communication system in January 2024, further advancing their relationship and strategic abilities. 

Such partnerships are common within the sphere of quantum computing, as the resource-intensive development process limits participation to a handful of nations. Currently, only 29 countries have implemented specific quantum technology research and development initiatives. This concentration of resources and expertise could exacerbate existing global inequalities, making alliances with the major global powers even more crucial than they currently are. 

These relationships are poised to become especially complicated in the East Asian region, where the likes of South Korea and Japan are diplomatically and militarily aligned with the United States, yet rely heavily on China for trade. They are already caught in the crosshairs of the US-China semiconductor battle, and further divisions centered on quantum computing could magnify the dilemmas that they face. Likewise, Taiwan, a global semiconductor leader, could see its sovereignty challenged by China as quantum computing grows in strategic importance.

Quantum computing’s impact on cybersecurity will be particularly significant in terms of strategic importance, as technologies such as quantum key distribution (QKD) can make existing security protocols obsolete. QKD utilizes quantum principles such as indeterminacy, where the state of a particle is completely unpredictable, and entanglement, where particles immediately affect each other’s state regardless of distance, to create unbreakable communication networks.

In 2016, China deployed “Micius,” a communication satellite which used quantum-entangled photons as part of its encryption protocol. Researchers in the United States, China, and elsewhere have also succeeded in connecting quantum computers in different locations via fiber optic cables. Although these systems are still generally regarded as being proof-of-concept experiments, once the technology is fully developed, it offers the prospect of a “quantum internet” which cannot be penetrated.

Simultaneously, quantum computing’s sheer processing power has the potential to solve the complex mathematical equations used in classical computer encryption protocols. A fault-tolerant quantum computer is expected to be able to breach current Public Key Cryptography by 2030, potentially leading to huge shifts in the fields of communications, data storage, and military strategy. This is likely to amplify current cyber inequity, as a handful of quantum-capable nations will possess unbreakable communication protocols, while simultaneously being able to decrypt communications between parties who do not possess quantum communication technology.

Quantum computing is also predicted to revolutionize the biomedical field as it can be used to simulate molecules on an atomic level, predicting their properties and behaviors with unprecedented accuracy. The deployment of quantum computing to solve optimization problems could speed up drug development while simultaneously lowering the cost. It would also increase the agility of pharmaceutical companies, enabling them to rapidly respond to public health crises. 

However, access to these cutting-edge treatments will likely be unequal, as pharmaceutical R&D, much like quantum research, tends to be clustered within a handful of wealthy nations. This disparity could deepen global health inequalities, while also creating increasing reliance on those countries which possess quantum technology. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many developing countries were heavily reliant on wealthier nations for newly-developed vaccines. While quantum computing could allow faster responses to future global health crises, it could also deepen the dependency on the handful of countries which possess the technology.

Finally, the world’s response to climate change could be shaped by quantum computing applications. As weather patterns become more volatile and unpredictable, advanced climate modeling and weather predictions could boost the resilience of quantum-equipped nations, helping them to adapt to a new status quo. Likewise, energy generation can be simulated and optimized, aiding in the design of effective energy production and storage technologies, smart grids, as well as climate mitigation strategies such as carbon capture.

It can thus be seen that quantum computing exists as a double-edged sword in a changing and uncertain world. Although it promises to greatly improve our ability to predict, interpret, and respond to rapidly-unfolding, unpredictable events, quantum computing itself is a source of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Geopolitical rivalries over access to quantum technology are fueling tensions, while the field itself is often opaque, meaning that the implications of new developments can be difficult to assess.

The source and timing of new breakthroughs within the field are also extremely hard to predict, and many of quantum computing’s applications are still highly theoretical. As such, it is extremely difficult to analyze what the true impacts of quantum computing will be and where they will emerge. It seems increasingly clear, though, that quantum computing will amplify existing inequalities, creating an even sharper divide between technologically-advanced nations, their closest allies, and those who are left behind.

If this accessibility gap is not bridged, the “quantum divide” could surpass the nuclear divide, not just in weaponry and military power, but in terms of individual nations’ ability to adapt and respond to an increasingly uncertain world that is changing at an ever-more-rapid rate.