The Geopolitics of Quantum AI: How Next-Gen Computing Will Redefine National Power

By Brian He Aug. 23, 2025

In the 21st century, the frontier of global power is shifting. Energy, territory and raw materials remain important—but a quieter, far more disruptive race is underway: the contest for quantum-powered artificial intelligence (AI). Quantum computing promises to collapse time-and-space constraints on computation; when tied to AI, it can break encryption, optimise logistics, automate decision-making and tilt the balance of power between states. The major players—principally the United States, the People’s Republic of China, the European Union and India—are already positioning quantum AI as the next instrument of national sovereignty. The question is no longer whether quantum will matter—but who owns it, controls it and can weaponise it.

Quantum AI: The Strategic Leap

Quantum computing exploits the principles of superposition and entanglement to process vast combinatorial possibilities at once. When paired with AI, the result is exponential leaps in capability: models that can optimise infrastructure, decrypt secure communications, and simulate complex global scenarios. According to the McKinsey & Company Quantum Technology Monitor (2025), the quantum-technology market is projected to generate up to US$97 billion by 2035—most of it in quantum computing—up from roughly US$4 billion in 2024. McKinsey & Company Meanwhile, global investments in quantum initiatives already exceed US$55.7 billion as of 2025. Qureca

For a state, achieving quantum AI dominance is not simply a technological mark of prestige—it is a strategic edge. Decrypting adversary communications, optimising multi-domain military operations, automating decision loops—these become far more effective when enhanced by quantum speeds. As described in “The Quantum Race,” the emerging technology presents “a profound challenge to global security governance.” e-ir.info

The Major Power Contest

United States

The United States continues to lead in many foundational AI and semiconductor domains, but analysts warn that maintaining the lead in quantum AI will require sustained investment. The U.S. government’s export-control strategy and domestic chip-fabrication subsidies reflect this priority.

China

China, by contrast, has adopted a state-driven model: massive infrastructure build-out, coordinated research push, and an “all-of-state” approach that treats technology as strategic asset. The JPMorgan Chase Centre for Geopolitics reports that China’s approach to energy, large-scale deployment and state-enterprise coordination gives it an edge in large infrastructure and quantum base-layers. JPMorgan Chase The Chinese government has also emphasised global coordination and standard setting in AI—which may now extend into quantum.

European Union

The European Union is caught between ambition and constraint: while it aims for technological sovereignty, its fragmented policy environment and regulatory burdens slow full-stack quantum AI build-out. Recent proposals for a “European Quantum Act” suggest the EU wants to pair industrial policy with regulation to catch up. arXiv

India (and the Global South)

India and other major emerging powers recognise quantum AI as an opportunity to leapfrog legacy systems. India’s National Quantum Mission and state-level commitments (for example, Andhra Pradesh’s “Quantum Valley”) signal ambition. The Times of India But these efforts face the same dual challenge: access to talent and capital, and avoiding dependency on foreign quantum/AI infrastructure.

Strategic Domains of Influence

Cybersecurity & Encryption

Perhaps the most immediate geo-strategic impact of quantum AI lies in encryption. Quantum computers can run Shor’s algorithm and break current public-key infrastructures. Combine that with AI-driven cyber-attack planning, and the threat surface expands dramatically. Analysts estimate that within the next decade quantum-threatened encryption will force wholesale redesign of cybersecurity architectures. arXiv

Supply Chains & Critical Infrastructure

Quantum AI can optimise supply-chain resilience, energy grids, defence logistics and even materials discovery. For example, a strategic quantum-AI system could anticipate disruptions, reroute logistics and ensure military readiness far faster than classical systems.

Economic & Innovation Leadership

States with quantum-AI capacity will attract talent, investment and technological spill-over. They will set standards, control manufacturing of quantum hardware (qubits, cryogenic systems) and dominate the next wave of industrial AI transformation. The McKinsey report estimates quantum’s largest economic growth will come from industries such as chemicals, life sciences, finance and mobility. McKinsey & Company

Risks of a Fragmented Quantum Order

A world divided into quantum-AI blocs risks a new kind of Cold War: technological, strategic, and economic. Without coordinated standards and frameworks, quantum breakthroughs could destabilise trust among states.

In particular:

• States without quantum capability become dependent on dominant blocs, reinforcing technological hierarchy.

• Export-control regimes may proliferate, fragmenting innovation and increasing costs.

• Quantum surveillance, cryptographic weakness and automated decision-systems could erode civil liberties globally.

• A “race to the bottom” may emerge where quantum-AI is deployed without adequate safeguards.

As the article “The Quantum Race” warns, early governance lost may mean catastrophe gained. e-ir.info

Governance, Allies & Standards

The race for quantum AI is not just competition—it’s governance. For states to flourish without chaos, three strands matter:

• Standards and Norms: As the EU draft quantum act suggests, states need governance frameworks tailored to quantum information technologies: hybrid industrial-policy plus regulation. arXiv

• Alliances and Shared Infrastructure: The U.S.–UK “Technology Prosperity Deal” (US$350 billion) announced in 2025, linking AI, quantum computing and nuclear energy, underscores the importance of allied coordination. New York Post

• Inclusivity and Capacity-Building: Without enabling emerging states, the global quantum AI order will skew toward a handful of powers. Investing in quantum education, infrastructure and open access is essential.

Conclusion: Beyond the Quantum Race

Quantum AI is not merely the next layer of technology—it is the next architecture of power. Whoever controls quantum hardware, software and the AI systems that run on them will reshape global economics, warfare and governance. But this power comes with a choice: will it lead to a fragmented world of blocs and dependencies, or a cooperative system of shared technological advancement?

The future will not be defined by quantum computers alone—it will be defined by how societies choose to integrate them into governance, equity and ethics. The quantum race is not about who gets there first—it’s about who ensures we get there together.

Works Cited

McKinsey & Company. “The Year of Quantum: From Concept to Reality in 2025.” 23 June 2025. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-year-of-quantum-from-concept-to-reality-in-2025.

 QURECA. “Quantum Initiatives Worldwide 2025.” 15 Oct. 2025. https://www.qureca.com/quantum-initiatives-worldwide/.

 Zancanaro, E. “The Quantum Race: How Emerging Technologies Reshape Global Security & Governance.” e-IR, 29 Sept. 2025. https://www.e-ir.info/2025/09/29/the-quantum-race-how-emerging-technologies-reshape-global-security-governance/.

 Kop, Mauritz. “Towards a European Quantum Act: A Two-Pillar Framework for Regulation and Innovation.” arXiv, 13 Sept. 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.14262.

 Elmisery, Ahmed M., et al. “Cyber Threats in Financial Transactions — Addressing the Dual Challenge of AI and Quantum Computing.” arXiv, 19 Mar. 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15678.

 “Trump, Starmer Sign US$350 B Tech Deal to Spur AI, Nuclear Energy and Quantum Computing.” New York Post, 18 Sept. 2025. https://nypost.com/2025/09/18/us-news/trump-starmer-sign-tech-prosperity-deal-to-spur-ai-nuclear-energy-and-quantum-computing/.