The Housing Mirage: How Global Citizenship-by-Investment Programs Inflate Real Estate Bubbles

By Ella Brown Aug. 9, 2025

For the ultra-rich, a passport has become an asset class. Citizenship-by-investment (CBI) programs—legal pathways allowing foreigners to purchase residency or nationality through property or donations—have generated US$25 billion in inflows since 2015, according to Henley & Partners (2024). But the capital that fuels governments is simultaneously destabilizing housing markets, displacing citizens, and deepening inequality.

The Economics of a Golden Passport

By 2024, over 70 countries offered some form of CBI or residency-by-investment (RBI) program. The European Union hosts nine, led by Portugal, Greece, and Malta, where property purchases above €250,000–€500,000 qualify for residency. The OECD International Migration Outlook (2024) estimates these programs have driven up urban housing prices by 8–12 percent in target cities.

In Lisbon, the average home price tripled from €1,200/m² in 2010 to €3,600/m² in 2024. Yet median household income rose only 27 percent. While the government credits foreign inflows for post-crisis recovery, locals call it an affordability collapse.

The Regulatory Arbitrage

CBI capital is remarkably liquid—and opaque. A Transparency International (2024) audit found that 38 percent of all EU residency-by-investment applicants came through intermediaries registered in tax havens, obscuring beneficial ownership. Many properties are left vacant—functioning as financial instruments rather than homes.

Greece’s program illustrates this duality. Between 2019 and 2024, 40 percent of CBI-linked purchases in Athens remained unoccupied, creating “phantom neighborhoods.” This phenomenon artificially inflates price indices while eroding community vitality.

Policy Capture and Local Resistance

Governments defend CBI schemes as fiscal tools. Portugal’s program alone injected €6.8 billion since 2012, 90 percent into real estate. But the cost is democratic: the Lisbon Housing Observatory (2024) found that for every €1 million gained through CBI, €4 million in social housing investments were deferred due to inflationary spillovers.

Public backlash is spreading. Ireland terminated its Immigrant Investor Program in 2023; Portugal restricted real estate eligibility to rural regions. Yet the cycle continues—wealth migrates faster than policy.

The Global Geography of CBI

CBI capital flows mirror colonial routes. Caribbean states like St. Kitts & Nevis and Dominica rely on citizenship sales for up to 35 percent of fiscal revenue. A World Bank Sovereign Revenue Report (2024) warns that such dependence is unsustainable, as new EU regulations now require “enhanced due diligence” for all passport applicants.

Meanwhile, new entrants—Turkey, Vanuatu, and the UAE—position themselves as tax-friendly havens, commodifying sovereignty for geopolitical leverage.

Rethinking the Housing Passport Nexus

CBI’s most damaging externality is its distortion of shelter as a human right. The UN Habitat Report (2024) urges governments to delink investment thresholds from property ownership, proposing sovereign development funds instead of real estate-based schemes.

Urban citizenship should not depend on capital inflow. The world’s elite are buying belonging, while millions are priced out of the cities that sell it.

Works Cited

“International Migration Outlook 2024.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2024.

 “Global Citizenship Report 2024.” Henley & Partners, 2024.

 “Transparency and Property Ownership in CBI Schemes.” Transparency International, 2024.

 “Lisbon Housing Observatory Report.” City of Lisbon Urban Planning Office, 2024.

 “Real Estate and Residency Programs.” European Commission DG Home Affairs, 2024.

 “Sovereign Revenue Trends 2024.” World Bank Group, 2024.

 “UN Habitat Housing and Rights Report.” United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), 2024.

 “Economic Impact of Golden Visas.” European Parliament Policy Department, 2024.

 “Tax Havens and Migration Capital.” Global Financial Integrity (GFI), 2024.

 “Caribbean CBI Revenue Analysis.” International Monetary Fund Western Hemisphere Division, 2024.