The Quantum Divide: Why the Next Computing Revolution Could Deepen Global Inequality

By Rohan Nair Sep. 20, 2024

For decades, digital revolutions promised to close gaps—between nations, incomes, and opportunities. But the rise of quantum computing threatens to do the opposite. By 2025, global investment in quantum technologies surpassed US$45 billion, led overwhelmingly by the United States, China, and the European Union (OECD Technology Frontier Outlook, 2025). Yet fewer than ten countries possess the infrastructure to develop or even access functional quantum systems.

Quantum computing may become the most unequal technology since nuclear energy—concentrated, opaque, and geopolitically defining.

The Physics of Power

Quantum computing leverages the bizarre principles of superposition and entanglement, allowing qubits to perform calculations exponentially faster than classical bits. In theory, a stable 1,000-qubit system could outperform the world’s largest supercomputer on tasks from encryption breaking to climate modeling.

But in practice, this performance requires resources—cryogenic cooling, nanofabrication, and precision isolation—available only to a handful of research hubs. The MIT Quantum Systems Index (2025) shows that 93 percent of global qubit capacity resides in labs operated by Google, IBM, Alibaba, and Baidu, supported by massive government subsidies.

In the new quantum economy, hardware equals hegemony.

The Strategic Monopolization of Science

Quantum technology is no longer just an academic pursuit; it is a geopolitical arms race. The U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act and China’s Quantum Information Science Program together account for US$16 billion in public spending—more than the entire R&D budget of 110 developing nations combined (World Bank Science Expenditure Database, 2025).

This creates a dual monopoly: technological and epistemic. The nations that master quantum computing will dominate not only computation but also data security, materials science, and artificial intelligence optimization.

The rest of the world risks becoming digitally non-sovereign—unable to process its own information.

Quantum Supremacy as Economic Weapon

Quantum supremacy—the point at which a quantum computer can outperform all classical systems—is not just a technical milestone. It is a potential economic weapon. Financial institutions already model market behavior and risk using high-performance computing; quantum systems could accelerate simulations of global trading patterns or even decode encrypted market strategies.

The International Monetary Fund FinTech Risk Brief (2025) warns that “quantum arbitrage” may emerge, where entities with early access to quantum computation manipulate markets milliseconds faster than competitors.

In such an environment, time itself becomes the scarce resource—and inequality the natural consequence.

Encryption: The First Casualty

The most immediate threat of quantum computing lies in cryptography. Quantum algorithms such as Shor’s Algorithm can theoretically break RSA-2048 encryption—the backbone of global cybersecurity—in minutes. The European Union Cybersecurity Agency (ENISA) Quantum Preparedness Report (2025) estimates that 70 percent of the world’s encrypted data is vulnerable to future decryption, creating what experts call “harvest now, decrypt later” risk.

Governments and corporations are rushing toward post-quantum cryptography, but developing countries lack the expertise and resources to upgrade infrastructure at the required pace. The digital divide may soon become a security divide.

The Resource Asymmetry

Quantum computing’s infrastructure is inherently elitist. Each dilution refrigerator costs up to US$2 million, while a single quantum fabrication line requires cleanroom investments exceeding US$200 million (OECD Industrial Capex Report, 2025).

For low- and middle-income nations, this price tag makes participation impossible. As a result, global research networks increasingly resemble feudal hierarchies—small nodes orbiting a few technological empires.

Even within advanced economies, inequality persists: corporate access outpaces academia. The Harvard Science Policy Review (2025) finds that 65 percent of quantum patents are now held by private firms, not public research institutions.

The promise of open science is collapsing under the gravity of private capital.

Quantum Colonialism

The global South’s dependence on Western and Chinese quantum infrastructure has birthed a new concept: quantum colonialism. Like earlier extractive systems, it relies on data rather than raw materials. Developing nations supply vast datasets—climate, health, social—while computational power remains centralized abroad.

The United Nations Technology Equity Panel (2025) warns that this asymmetry could “reproduce colonial patterns of dependency,” where data-rich but computation-poor nations must lease access to foreign algorithms that analyze their own populations.

In effect, the next frontier of digital sovereignty may not be ownership of data—but ownership of the ability to process it.

The Green Illusion

Quantum computing is often marketed as “energy efficient,” since it can solve problems in fewer operations. But maintaining qubits near absolute zero requires enormous cooling power. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Emerging Tech Efficiency Report (2025) reveals that a 1,000-qubit system consumes 10 megawatt-hours per day, roughly equal to 350 households.

The irony is sharp: the technology hailed as the future of sustainable computation currently burns more power per calculation than any in history.

Policy Interventions for a Quantum Just Future

Preventing a two-tiered quantum world demands global cooperation, not competition. The OECD Quantum Equity Framework (2025) proposes several measures:

1. Global Quantum Commons Initiative – Create open-access cloud-based quantum simulators for academic and developing-nation use.

2. Technology Transfer Programs – Encourage shared infrastructure via UN-coordinated partnerships.

3. Quantum Non-Proliferation Treaty (QNPT) – Establish international oversight over cryptographic use and algorithmic export.

4. Green Quantum Standards – Mandate life-cycle energy transparency for all quantum hardware.

If implemented, these measures could democratize access to the technology expected to define the next century’s innovation hierarchy.

The Ethics of Acceleration

Every technological leap widens or narrows the moral distance between those who can and those who cannot. Quantum computing holds the power to cure diseases, simulate ecosystems, and accelerate scientific discovery—but only for those with keys to the infrastructure.

Without intervention, the world may find itself split not by ideology or wealth, but by computation. In that reality, inequality will no longer be measured in income—but in qubits.

Works Cited

“Technology Frontier Outlook.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2025.

 “Quantum Systems Index.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 2025.

 “Science Expenditure Database.” World Bank, 2025.

 “FinTech Risk Brief.” International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2025.

 “Quantum Preparedness Report.” European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), 2025.

 “Industrial Capex Report.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2025.

 “Science Policy Review.” Harvard Kennedy School, 2025.

 “Technology Equity Panel.” United Nations, 2025.

 “Emerging Tech Efficiency Report.” International Energy Agency (IEA), 2025.

 “Quantum Equity Framework.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2025.